AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSTL vs CHC
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the STL @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
STL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
STL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · STL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSt. Louis vs Chicago C Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDCHC Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 29-for-69 (.420) with 4 HR vs. this starter, career
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
STL @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
43%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore STL by 0.51 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: STL 4.90, CHC 5.42
- Kyle Leahy (STL) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Kyle Leahy
STL SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
21%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 31% to reach 5+ against CHC
Shota Imanaga
CHC SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
- 66% to reach 5+ against STL
Nelson Velázquez
STL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
54%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Jordan Walker
STL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
29%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Iván Herrera
STL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Michael Conforto
CHC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Alec Burleson
STL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Shota Imanaga
JJ Wetherholt
STL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Masyn Winn
STL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
José Fermín
STL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 75%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Nathan Church
STL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 75%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Blaze Jordan
STL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 75%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Carson Kelly
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 75%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 75%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Leahy
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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