AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSF vs COL
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SF Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SF Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 13 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Francisco vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SF @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
83%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
80%
Run Line
COL -1.5
32%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
74%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
65%
THE READ
SF projects to outscore COL by 1.15 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SF 7.43, COL 6.27
- Robbie Ray (SF) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Robbie Ray
SF SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
80%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
70%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
- 64% to reach 5+ against COL
Tomoyuki Sugano
COL SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
84%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
74%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
- 10% to reach 5+ against SF
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
44%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robbie Ray
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
51%
Total Bases
2+ bases
68%
Total Bases
3+ bases
53%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Robbie Ray
Casey Schmitt
SF · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
86%
Hits
2+ hits
53%
Total Bases
2+ bases
68%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Victor Bericoto
SF · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Heliot Ramos
SF · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
87%
Hits
2+ hits
55%
Total Bases
2+ bases
70%
Total Bases
3+ bases
54%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 43% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
52%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Willy Adames
SF · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
29%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
49%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Luis Arraez
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
86%
Hits
2+ hits
54%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 54% against 45% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
50%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 50% against 45% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 80%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robbie Ray
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 80%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robbie Ray
Edouard Julien
COL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robbie Ray
Drew Cavanaugh
SF · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Tomoyuki Sugano
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Robbie Ray
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 74% against 80%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 72% against 80%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robbie Ray
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 80%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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