AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs LAD
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Diego vs Los Angeles D Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
46%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
52%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore SD by 1.04 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 4.04, LAD 5.08
- Griffin Canning (SD) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Griffin Canning
SD SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
33%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 30% to reach 5+ against LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
68%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
- 74% to reach 5+ against SD
Shohei Ohtani
LAD · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Griffin Canning
Dalton Rushing
LAD · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Griffin Canning
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Griffin Canning
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Griffin Canning
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Facing Griffin Canning
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Griffin Canning
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Griffin Canning
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Gavin Sheets
SD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Griffin Canning
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Alex Freeland
LAD · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Griffin Canning
Sung-Mun Song
SD · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jake Cronenworth
SD · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.
- Batting 2
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Rodolfo Durán
SD · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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