AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYM vs ATL
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYM @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYM Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDNew York M vs Atlanta Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYM @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
52%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore NYM by 1.61 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYM 3.37, ATL 4.99
- Sean Manaea (NYM) vs Chris Sale (ATL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Sean Manaea
NYM SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
- 57% to reach 5+ against ATL
Chris Sale
ATL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
20%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
18%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
39%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
26%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
- 88% to reach 5+ against NYM
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Sean Manaea
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Sean Manaea
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Sean Manaea
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Chris Sale
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Sean Manaea
Dominic Smith
ATL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Manaea
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Chris Sale
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chris Sale
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Chris Sale
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sean Manaea
Jorge Mateo
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Sean Manaea
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Manaea
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Manaea
Brett Baty
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
Luis Torrens
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chris Sale
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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