AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs NYY
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIN @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYY to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYY -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYY
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYY wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMinnesota vs New York Y Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
76%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
79%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
52%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
55%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
72%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore MIN by 1.58 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIN 5.42, NYY 7.00
- Mike Paredes (MIN) vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Mike Paredes
MIN SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
68%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 12% to reach 5+ against NYY
Gerrit Cole
NYY SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
63%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 31% to reach 5+ against MIN
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
44%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Mike Paredes
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Mike Paredes
Ryan McMahon
NYY · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Facing Mike Paredes
Trent Grisham
NYY · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Mike Paredes
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Mike Paredes
Trevor Larnach
MIN · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mike Paredes
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mike Paredes
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mike Paredes
Austin Wells
NYY · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mike Paredes
Tristan Gray
MIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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