AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs CLE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CWS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CLE to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CLE -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CLE
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CLE wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDChicago WS vs Cleveland Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
47%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore CWS by 1.14 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 3.82, CLE 4.96
- Sean Burke (CWS) vs Parker Messick (CLE)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Sean Burke
CWS SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 59% to reach 5+ against CLE
Parker Messick
CLE SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
26%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
94%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.1 strikeouts
- 87% to reach 5+ against CWS
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Parker Messick
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Parker Messick
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Parker Messick
Rhys Hoskins
CLE · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Kyle Manzardo
CLE · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Sean Burke
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
David Fry
CLE · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Sean Burke
Gabriel Arias
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Sean Burke
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Parker Messick
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Parker Messick
Austin Hedges
CLE · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Kyle Teel
CWS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Parker Messick
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Parker Messick
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Jacob Gonzalez
CWS · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Parker Messick
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Parker Messick
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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