AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBAL vs CIN
Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BAL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CIN wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDBaltimore vs Cincinnati Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BAL @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
84%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
82%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
32%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
77%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
67%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore CIN by 1.22 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BAL 7.72, CIN 6.50
- Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs Brady Singer (CIN)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Trevor Rogers
BAL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
98%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
90%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
83%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 67% to reach 5+ against CIN
Brady Singer
CIN SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
59%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
85%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
75%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 58% to reach 5+ against BAL
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
58%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
50%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 41% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Trevor Rogers
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trevor Rogers
Samuel Basallo
BAL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Colton Cowser
BAL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Blaze Alexander
BAL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 38% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Adley Rutschman
BAL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 38% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Brady Singer
Spencer Steer
CIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Trevor Rogers
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Brady Singer
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 76%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trevor Rogers
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trevor Rogers
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 21% against 23%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Trevor Rogers
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 72% against 76%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Trevor Rogers
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 41% against 44%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 76%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trevor Rogers
Matt McLain
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 76%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Trevor Rogers
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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