AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs LAD
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, July 2, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Diego vs Los Angeles D Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
97 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 12
Game Markets
SD @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
50%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore SD by 1.49 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 3.43, LAD 4.92
- Michael King (SD) vs Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Michael King
SD SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
60%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against LAD
Shohei Ohtani
LAD SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
33%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
75%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.5 strikeouts
- 92% to reach 5+ against SD
Shohei Ohtani
LAD · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael King
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 28% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Michael King
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 37% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael King
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael King
Dalton Rushing
LAD · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Michael King
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 76%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Michael King
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael King
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 72% against 76%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Michael King
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 76%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael King
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.