AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs PHI
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, July 2, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 21 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPittsburgh vs Philadelphia Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
70%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
67%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
40%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
57%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
61%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 11.37 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: PIT 5.58, PHI 5.79
- Jared Jones (PIT) vs Alan Rangel (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Jared Jones
PIT SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
21%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 56% to reach 5+ against PHI
Alan Rangel
PHI SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
50%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
- 29% to reach 5+ against PIT
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jared Jones
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jared Jones
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jared Jones
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Alan Rangel
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Alan Rangel
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Alan Rangel
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Alan Rangel
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Alan Rangel
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Jared Jones
Endy Rodríguez
PIT · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Alan Rangel
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Alan Rangel
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Jared Jones
Marcell Ozuna
PIT · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Alan Rangel
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Jared Jones
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Jared Jones
Jared Triolo
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Alan Rangel
Rafael Marchán
PHI · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jared Jones
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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