AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIA vs COL
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Thursday, July 2, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIA @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMiami vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIA @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
90%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
86%
Run Line
COL -1.5
33%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
81%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
74%
THE READ
MIA projects to outscore COL by 1.45 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIA 8.75, COL 7.30
- Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs Michael Lorenzen (COL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Ryan Gusto
MIA SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
15%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 12% to reach 5+ against COL
Michael Lorenzen
COL SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
85%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
75%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 16% to reach 5+ against MIA
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
86%
Hits
2+ hits
57%
Total Bases
2+ bases
71%
Total Bases
3+ bases
57%
Total Bases
4+ bases
47%
RBIs
1+ RBI
63%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
39%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
86%
Hits
2+ hits
53%
Total Bases
2+ bases
69%
Total Bases
3+ bases
54%
Total Bases
4+ bases
45%
RBIs
1+ RBI
57%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Owen Caissie
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
50%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
57%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Liam Hicks
MIA · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
85%
Hits
2+ hits
53%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
85%
Hits
2+ hits
52%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
54%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
29%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
88%
Hits
2+ hits
59%
Total Bases
2+ bases
69%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 59% against 46% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Joe Mack
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
49%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 82%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 83%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 82%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 76% against 81%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Edouard Julien
COL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 74% against 81%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Gusto
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 73% against 81%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Brett Sullivan
COL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 81%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Gusto
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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