AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDDET vs TEX
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Thursday, July 2, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the DET @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
DET Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
DET Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDDetroit vs Texas Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
DET @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
65%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
52%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
63%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore DET by 1.61 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: DET 4.49, TEX 6.09
- Framber Valdez (DET) vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Framber Valdez
DET SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
94%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
87%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
79%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
34%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
86%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
- 92% to reach 5+ against DET
Dillon Dingler
DET · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Kerry Carpenter
DET · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Justin Foscue
TEX · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Kyle Higashioka
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Josh Jung
TEX · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Elias Díaz
TEX · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Framber Valdez
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Spencer Torkelson
DET · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Cam Cauley
TEX · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6
- Facing Framber Valdez
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Framber Valdez
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Alejandro Osuna
TEX · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Framber Valdez
Colt Keith
DET · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Hao-Yu Lee
DET · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Zach McKinstry
DET · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
James Outman
DET · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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