AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CWS vs CLE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

Thursday, July 2, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CWS @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCWS

0·0

CLEVELANDCLE

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH82.8

CH86.2

FB93.9

FB94.4

SL85.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

CWS Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

41%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCWS Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Chicago WS vs Cleveland Winner?

59%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS CLE

Game Markets

CWS @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

67%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

52%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

59%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore CWS by 1.54 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: CWS 4.08, CLE 5.61
Anthony Kay (CWS) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Anthony Kay

CWS SP · vs. CLE

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
26% to reach 5+ against CLE

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. CWS

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

41%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

91%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
94% to reach 5+ against CWS

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Gavin Williams

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gavin Williams

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gavin Williams

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gavin Williams

Kahlil Watson

CLE · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Anthony Kay

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Gavin Williams

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats S
Facing Gavin Williams

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Anthony Kay

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.

Batting 1 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Anthony Kay

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Anthony Kay

Cooper Ingle

CLE · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Anthony Kay

Jacob Gonzalez

CWS · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Gavin Williams

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 5 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Anthony Kay

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Gavin Williams

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Gavin Williams

Gabriel Arias

CLE · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 34% against 36%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Anthony Kay

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 72%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Anthony Kay

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 72%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Anthony Kay

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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