AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs MIL
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, July 2, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDCincinnati vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
69%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
31%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
29%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
52%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
21%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.52 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 2.73, MIL 4.25
- Chase Burns (CIN) vs Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Chase Burns
CIN SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
44%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.2 strikeouts
- 96% to reach 5+ against MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
99%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
98%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
84%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
77%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
39%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 11.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 11.6 strikeouts
- 99% to reach 5+ against CIN
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
Sal Frelick
MIL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Nathaniel Lowe
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
David Hamilton
MIL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
Jose Trevino
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
20%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
14%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
42%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
19%
Total Bases
3+ bases
8%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
14%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 42% against 59%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Jacob Misiorowski
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.