AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDWSH vs BOS
Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the WSH @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
WSH Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDWashington vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
WSH @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
71%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
68%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
52%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
68%
THE READ
BOS projects to outscore WSH by 1.60 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: WSH 4.91, BOS 6.51
- Brad Lord (WSH) vs Payton Tolle (BOS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Brad Lord
WSH SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 27% to reach 5+ against BOS
Payton Tolle
BOS SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
67%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
63%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 68% to reach 5+ against WSH
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
54%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brad Lord
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Payton Tolle
Romy Gonzalez
BOS · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5
- Facing Brad Lord
Anthony Seigler
BOS · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 46% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brad Lord
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Brad Lord
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 44% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Brad Lord
Nate Eaton
BOS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Brad Lord
Curtis Mead
WSH · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Payton Tolle
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Payton Tolle
Connor Wong
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Brad Lord
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Payton Tolle
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brad Lord
Andruw Monasterio
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brad Lord
Andrés Chaparro
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 73%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Payton Tolle
Jacob Young
WSH · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Payton Tolle
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 73%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Payton Tolle
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Payton Tolle
Drew Millas
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Payton Tolle
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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