AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSTL vs ATL
St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the STL @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
STL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
STL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · STL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 25 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSt. Louis vs Atlanta Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
below-average pitch arsenal
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
STL @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
53%
Game Total
Over 8.5
78%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
80%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
50%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
59%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
72%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore STL by 1.24 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: STL 5.72, ATL 6.96
- Michael McGreevy (STL) vs Reynaldo López (ATL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Michael McGreevy
STL SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
22%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
83%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
72%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
- 10% to reach 5+ against ATL
Reynaldo López
ATL SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
49%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
15%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
- 19% to reach 5+ against STL
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
50%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Jordan Walker
STL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Reynaldo López
Alec Burleson
STL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reynaldo López
Lars Nootbaar
STL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Reynaldo López
Dominic Smith
ATL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Iván Herrera
STL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Reynaldo López
Jorge Mateo
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 76%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Michael McGreevy
JJ Wetherholt
STL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 76%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Reynaldo López
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael McGreevy
Nathan Church
STL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 74%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Reynaldo López
Masyn Winn
STL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 74%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Reynaldo López
Blaze Jordan
STL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
Jimmy Crooks
STL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Reynaldo López
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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