AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYM vs TOR

New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYM @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYM

0·0

TORONTOTOR

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.7

FB94.2

CH87.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYM Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYNYM Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

New York M vs Toronto Winner?

60%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

below-average pitch arsenal · starter is in an opener/bulk role

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYM TOR

Game Markets

NYM @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

37%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 10.14 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: NYM 5.16, TOR 4.98
Freddy Peralta (NYM) vs Braydon Fisher (TOR)
Run on confirmed lineups

Freddy Peralta

NYM SP · vs. TOR

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
41% to reach 5+ against TOR

Braydon Fisher

TOR SP · vs. NYM

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

22%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

88%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
84% to reach 5+ against NYM

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Braydon Fisher

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Freddy Peralta

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats S
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Braydon Fisher

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Freddy Peralta

Jared Young

NYM · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Braydon Fisher

Daulton Varsho

TOR · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Freddy Peralta

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Freddy Peralta

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Braydon Fisher

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Braydon Fisher

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Braydon Fisher

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Freddy Peralta

Yohendrick Piñango

TOR · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Freddy Peralta

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Freddy Peralta

Sean Keys

TOR · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Freddy Peralta

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Braydon Fisher

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 69%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Braydon Fisher

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 69%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Freddy Peralta

Tyrone Taylor

NYM · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 69%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Braydon Fisher

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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