AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs HOU
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIN @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 13 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMinnesota vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
below-average pitch arsenal
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
55%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
44%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore MIN by 0.73 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIN 4.25, HOU 4.98
- Taj Bradley (MIN) vs Tatsuya Imai (HOU)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Taj Bradley
MIN SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
20%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
56%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
- 80% to reach 5+ against HOU
Tatsuya Imai
HOU SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
46%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 73% to reach 5+ against MIN
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Taj Bradley
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Taj Bradley
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Trevor Larnach
MIN · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Taj Bradley
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Taj Bradley
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Taj Bradley
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Taj Bradley
Yainer Diaz
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Taj Bradley
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Raynel Delgado
HOU · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Taj Bradley
Joey Loperfido
HOU · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Taj Bradley
Tristan Gray
MIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tatsuya Imai
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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