AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIA vs COL
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIA @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMiami vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
below-average pitch arsenal
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDMIA Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 13-for-33 (.394) with 0 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIA @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
86%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
79%
Run Line
COL -1.5
30%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
78%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
67%
THE READ
MIA projects to outscore COL by 1.61 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIA 8.06, COL 6.45
- Max Meyer (MIA) vs Kyle Freeland (COL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Max Meyer
MIA SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
55%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 82% to reach 5+ against COL
Kyle Freeland
COL SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
84%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
75%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 32% to reach 5+ against MIA
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
41%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
45%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 41% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Max Meyer
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Max Meyer
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
89%
Hits
2+ hits
62%
Total Bases
2+ bases
72%
Total Bases
3+ bases
54%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 62% against 42% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
49%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Esteury Ruiz
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
51%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Liam Hicks
MIA · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
49%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Owen Caissie
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Max Meyer
Brian Navarreto
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 79%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Leo Jiménez
MIA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Max Meyer
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Max Meyer
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 74% against 78%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Max Meyer
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 78%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Max Meyer
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 78%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Max Meyer
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 78%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Max Meyer
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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