AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

TEX vs CLE

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TEX @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TEXASTEX

0·0

CLEVELANDCLE

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

TEX Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH88.2

CH85.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

TEX Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · TEX LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYTEX Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Texas vs Cleveland Winner?

70%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

elite pitch arsenal

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TEX CLE

Game Markets

TEX @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

35%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.02 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: TEX 4.61, CLE 4.41
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs Joey Cantillo (CLE)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. CLE

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
65% to reach 5+ against CLE

Joey Cantillo

CLE SP · vs. TEX

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

59%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
74% to reach 5+ against TEX

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Joey Cantillo

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Joey Cantillo

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Joey Cantillo

Josh Jung

TEX · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Joey Cantillo

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Joey Cantillo

Kahlil Watson

CLE · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Joey Cantillo

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Joey Cantillo

Alejandro Osuna

TEX · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Joey Cantillo

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Joey Cantillo

Cooper Ingle

CLE · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Gabriel Arias

CLE · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Daniel Schneemann

CLE · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing MacKenzie Gore

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing MacKenzie Gore

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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