AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs KC
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TB Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TB Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
KC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
KC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL KC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
KC wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDTampa Bay vs Kansas City Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
57%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
KC -1.5
29%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
55%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore KC by 1.10 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TB 5.40, KC 4.31
- Shane McClanahan (TB) vs Seth Lugo (KC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Shane McClanahan
TB SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
40%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
7%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
- 48% to reach 5+ against KC
Seth Lugo
KC SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
- 20% to reach 5+ against TB
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Ryan Vilade
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Seth Lugo
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Seth Lugo
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
John Rave
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Ben Williamson
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Nick Fortes
TB · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Nick Loftin
KC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane McClanahan
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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