AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PIT vs PHI

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT

0·0

PHILADELPHIAPHI

TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP

CH85.4

FB94.9

FB93.8

CV77.1

SL83.1

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

PIT Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYPIT Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Winner?

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

elite pitch arsenal

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT PHI

Game Markets

PIT @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

40%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore PIT by 0.40 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: PIT 3.85, PHI 4.25
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. PHI

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

24%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
88% to reach 5+ against PHI

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. PIT

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
80% to reach 5+ against PIT

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

41%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

64%

Total Bases

3+ bases

51%

Total Bases

4+ bases

45%

RBIs

1+ RBI

56%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

31%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 41% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Paul Skenes

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

48%

Total Bases

4+ bases

40%

RBIs

1+ RBI

54%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

31%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Paul Skenes

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

83%

Hits

2+ hits

49%

Total Bases

2+ bases

64%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

53%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

29%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Paul Skenes

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Zack Wheeler

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Zack Wheeler

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 38% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Paul Skenes

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Zack Wheeler

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Paul Skenes

Gabriel Rincones Jr.

PHI · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

Endy Rodríguez

PIT · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Zack Wheeler

Marcell Ozuna

PIT · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Zack Wheeler

Jared Triolo

PIT · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 70%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Zack Wheeler

Billy Cook

PIT · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Zack Wheeler

Henry Davis

PIT · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 70%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.