AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs BAL
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CWS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BAL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BAL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BAL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BAL wins F5
event 1 / 25 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDChicago WS vs Baltimore Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
84%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
84%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
55%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
61%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
79%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore CWS by 2.14 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 5.96, BAL 8.10
- Erick Fedde (CWS) vs Trey Gibson (BAL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Erick Fedde
CWS SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
50%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
69%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
- 16% to reach 5+ against BAL
Trey Gibson
BAL SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 43% to reach 5+ against CWS
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Trey Gibson
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 33% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Erick Fedde
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Gibson
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
49%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Samuel Basallo
BAL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 30% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Blaze Alexander
BAL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 45% against 37% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Erick Fedde
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Gibson
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 44% against 37% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Erick Fedde
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 37% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Colton Cowser
BAL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Leody Taveras
BAL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Trey Gibson
Kyle Teel
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 75%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Trey Gibson
Jacob Gonzalez
CWS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 75%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trey Gibson
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 75%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Trey Gibson
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 75%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Trey Gibson
Junior Perez
CWS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 75%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Trey Gibson
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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