AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs MIL
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDCincinnati vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
below-average pitch arsenal
GAME TOTAL
✓ CONFIRMEDMIL Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 19-for-66 (.288) with 5 HR vs. this starter, career · opposing pitcher has struggled this year (xFIP 4.51)
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
56%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
57%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
50%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
37%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
57%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.48 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 4.00, MIL 5.48
- Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs Shane Drohan (MIL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Andrew Abbott
CIN SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
73%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
59%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
- 34% to reach 5+ against MIL
Shane Drohan
MIL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
77%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
- 75% to reach 5+ against CIN
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 34% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andrew Abbott
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andrew Abbott
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Shane Drohan
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andrew Abbott
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andrew Abbott
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Shane Drohan
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Andrew Abbott
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Shane Drohan
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Andrew Abbott
Nathaniel Lowe
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Shane Drohan
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Drohan
Sal Frelick
MIL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Andrew Abbott
David Hamilton
MIL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Andrew Abbott
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Andrew Abbott
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Shane Drohan
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Drohan
Jose Trevino
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Drohan
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Drohan
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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