AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs HOU
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
Monday, June 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
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One representative trial from the MIN @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMinnesota vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
below-average pitch arsenal
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
28%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
34%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore HOU by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIN 4.84, HOU 3.81
- Joe Ryan (MIN) vs Mike Burrows (HOU)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Joe Ryan
MIN SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
78%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 82% to reach 5+ against HOU
Mike Burrows
HOU SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
50%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 39% to reach 5+ against MIN
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joe Ryan
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Joe Ryan
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Mike Burrows
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joe Ryan
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Joe Ryan
Trevor Larnach
MIN · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Mike Burrows
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Joe Ryan
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Mike Burrows
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Mike Burrows
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Joe Ryan
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Mike Burrows
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Mike Burrows
Joey Loperfido
HOU · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Joe Ryan
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Mike Burrows
Nick Allen
HOU · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Joe Ryan
Tristan Gray
MIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mike Burrows
Christian Vázquez
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Joe Ryan
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mike Burrows
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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