AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs MIL
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, June 29, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 21 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDCincinnati vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical · below-average pitch arsenal
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
61%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
65%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
49%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
60%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore CIN by 1.24 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 4.50, MIL 5.74
- Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs Brandon Sproat (MIL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Rhett Lowder
CIN SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
54%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
- 26% to reach 5+ against MIL
Brandon Sproat
MIL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against CIN
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
49%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Gary Sánchez
MIL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Andrew Vaughn
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Brandon Sproat
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Rhett Lowder
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Spencer Steer
CIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Sal Frelick
MIL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Blake Perkins
MIL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Dane Myers
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Rhett Lowder
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Matt McLain
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Sproat
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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