AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDWSH vs BAL
Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, June 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the WSH @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
WSH Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BAL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BAL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BAL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BAL wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDWashington vs Baltimore Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical · below-average pitch arsenal
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
WSH @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
74%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
65%
Game Total
Over 8.5
81%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
80%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
62%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
80%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore WSH by 2.90 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: WSH 5.15, BAL 8.06
- Zack Littell (WSH) vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Zack Littell
WSH SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
85%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
76%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 16% to reach 5+ against BAL
Kyle Bradish
BAL SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
11%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
58%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 63% to reach 5+ against WSH
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
39%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
54%
Total Bases
4+ bases
46%
RBIs
1+ RBI
60%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
35%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 39% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zack Littell
Samuel Basallo
BAL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
29%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Zack Littell
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 47% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Zack Littell
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Zack Littell
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Zack Littell
Colton Cowser
BAL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Zack Littell
Adley Rutschman
BAL · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Zack Littell
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Zack Littell
Curtis Mead
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kyle Bradish
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Coby Mayo
BAL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Zack Littell
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 73%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Jacob Young
WSH · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 73%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Keibert Ruiz
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Facing Kyle Bradish
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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