AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYY vs BOS
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Sunday, June 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYY Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYY Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYY LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDNew York Y vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
below-average pitch arsenal
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYY @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
66%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
67%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
33%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
60%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
52%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore BOS by 0.72 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYY 5.80, BOS 5.08
- Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Carlos Rodón
NYY SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
41%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
- 74% to reach 5+ against BOS
Sonny Gray
BOS SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
97%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
86%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
77%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 62% to reach 5+ against NYY
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Sonny Gray
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Sonny Gray
Amed Rosario
NYY · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Nate Eaton
BOS · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Sonny Gray
Romy Gonzalez
BOS · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Spencer Jones
NYY · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Sonny Gray
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Sonny Gray
Oswaldo Cabrera
NYY · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Sonny Gray
Anthony Seigler
BOS · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Carlos Rodón
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Austin Wells
NYY · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Connor Wong
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Carlos Rodón
Tsung-Che Cheng
BOS · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Carlos Rodón
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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