AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIA vs STL
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, June 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIA @ STL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
STL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
STL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL STL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
STL wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMiami vs St. Louis Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical · starter is in an opener/bulk role
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIA @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
67%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
66%
Run Line
STL -1.5
41%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
54%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
59%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 11.02 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: MIA 5.40, STL 5.62
- Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Kyle Leahy (STL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Tyler Phillips
MIA SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
78%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
81%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
72%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against STL
Kyle Leahy
STL SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
40%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 42% to reach 5+ against MIA
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Lars Nootbaar
STL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Alec Burleson
STL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Iván Herrera
STL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Owen Caissie
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Leahy
JJ Wetherholt
STL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Bryan Torres
STL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Nathan Church
STL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Blaze Jordan
STL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Masyn Winn
STL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Brian Navarreto
MIA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Leahy
Pedro Pagés
STL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tyler Phillips
Graham Pauley
MIA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Leahy
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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