AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

HOU vs DET

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers

Sunday, June 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU

0·0

DETROITDET

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

HOU Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94

CH84.5

SL84.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

HOU Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · HOU LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYHOU Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 17 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Houston vs Detroit Winner?

68%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical · below-average pitch arsenal

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU DET

Game Markets

HOU @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

DET -1.5

32%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

52%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore DET by 0.68 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: HOU 5.10, DET 4.42
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs Jack Flaherty (DET)
Run on confirmed lineups

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. DET

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
49% to reach 5+ against DET

Jack Flaherty

DET SP · vs. HOU

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
66% to reach 5+ against HOU

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Flaherty

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Hunter Brown

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Flaherty

Kerry Carpenter

DET · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Hunter Brown

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Jack Flaherty

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Hunter Brown

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Hunter Brown

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Hunter Brown

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Jack Flaherty

Raynel Delgado

HOU · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Jack Flaherty

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jack Flaherty

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Jack Flaherty

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Hunter Brown

Joey Loperfido

HOU · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Flaherty

Jake Meyers

HOU · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jack Flaherty

James Outman

DET · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Hunter Brown

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Hunter Brown

Matt Vierling

DET · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Hunter Brown

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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