AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

COL vs MIN

Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Twins

Sunday, June 28, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the COL @ MIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

COLORADOCOL

0·0

MINNESOTAMIN

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

COL Leadoff (R) vs HP

SL83.7

CH82.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

COL Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · COL LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

MIN to win

25%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

MIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL MIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

MIN wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCOL Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 15 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Colorado vs Minnesota Winner?

75%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical · below-average pitch arsenal

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

COL MIN

Game Markets

COL @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

71%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

61%

Game Total

Over 8.5

71%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

71%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

58%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

72%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore COL by 2.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: COL 4.62, MIN 6.88
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs Connor Prielipp (MIN)
Run on confirmed lineups

Ryan Feltner

COL SP · vs. MIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

78%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

77%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

65%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
29% to reach 5+ against MIN

Connor Prielipp

MIN SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
65% to reach 5+ against COL

Byron Buxton

MIN · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

46%

Hits

1+ hits

84%

Hits

2+ hits

50%

Total Bases

2+ bases

70%

Total Bases

3+ bases

59%

Total Bases

4+ bases

51%

RBIs

1+ RBI

62%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

38%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 46% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ryan Feltner

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

43%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

26%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ryan Feltner

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ryan Feltner

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Connor Prielipp

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

46%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 46% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ryan Feltner

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Ryan Feltner

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Ryan Feltner

Willi Castro

COL · bats S · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.

Batting 1 · bats S
Facing Connor Prielipp

Alex Jackson

MIN · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Ryan Feltner

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 5 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Connor Prielipp

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Connor Prielipp

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ryan Feltner

Tyler Freeman

COL · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Connor Prielipp

Austin Martin

MIN · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 72%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ryan Feltner

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 72%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Connor Prielipp

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 72%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Connor Prielipp

Braxton Fulford

COL · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 72%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Connor Prielipp

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 72%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Connor Prielipp

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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