AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs PIT
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Sunday, June 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PIT to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PIT -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PIT
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PIT wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ PIT · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
PIT F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
76%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
75%
Run Line
PIT -1.5
38%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
65%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
64%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 12.64 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: CIN 6.37, PIT 6.27
- Brady Singer (CIN) vs Mitch Keller (PIT)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Brady Singer
CIN SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
64%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
60%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
- 36% to reach 5+ against PIT
Mitch Keller
PIT SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
- 37% to reach 5+ against CIN
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Mitch Keller
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 36% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Mitch Keller
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 33% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Mitch Keller
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Konnor Griffin
PIT · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 36% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Brady Singer
Spencer Steer
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Mitch Keller
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Brady Singer
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Mitch Keller
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mitch Keller
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Mitch Keller
Tyler Callihan
PIT · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mitch Keller
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Brady Singer
Henry Davis
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Mitch Keller
II · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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