AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCHC vs MIL
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, June 28, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CHC @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CHC Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CHC Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CHC LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CHC @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
67%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
56%
Game Total
Over 8.5
67%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
67%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
53%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
67%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore CHC by 1.70 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CHC 4.68, MIL 6.37
- Ryan Rolison (CHC) vs Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Ryan Rolison
CHC SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
37%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 31% to reach 5+ against MIL
Brandon Woodruff
MIL SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
72%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 72% to reach 5+ against CHC
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 35% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
Gary Sánchez
MIL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Andrew Vaughn
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Michael Conforto
CHC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
Sal Frelick
MIL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 14% against 15%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
David Hamilton
MIL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Rolison
Miguel Amaya
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Woodruff
II · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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